Eliciting Sources of Uncertainty in Ecological Simulation Models

Uncertainty is an intrinsic feature of complex ecological models. Given that it is not possible to rid the models from uncertainty, we are left with taking notice of it for consideration in model-based decision making. Traditional ecological modelling methods and tools do not support explicit accounts of model uncertainty. This work gives a contribution towards making known, or bringing to the surface, sources of uncertainty that are embedded in ecological models. The sources of uncertainty are related to the models’ supporting data and equations. A metadata standard is used to specify data-related sources of uncertainty, such as creator and coverage. In the technique developed, models are described and simulated using logic, which allows the sources of uncertainty to be easily represented, and later propagated and combined during simulation. The combined sources of uncertainty can then be presented to the user who can assess their impact on model outputs and tune up his confidence in the model for decision making.